2026 Housing Market Outlook: What Slower Wage Growth, Rates, and Policy Shifts Mean for Northeast Florida Buyers and Sellers
The February 17, 2026 Florida Realtors® update highlighted three themes shaping this year’s housing market:
1. Slower wage gains stalling young buyers
2. Three major market forces to watch in 2026
3. Strategies for navigating higher mortgage rates
Below is a consolidated, practical breakdown tailored to buyers and sellers in Northeast Florida.
Slower Wage Gains Are Delaying First-Time Buyers
Recent reporting notes that slowing wage growth is disproportionately affecting young adults. Combined with high housing costs and softer job expansion in some sectors, many first-time buyers are pausing.
What This Means:
• Affordability pressure remains real despite moderation in price growth.
• Buyers are extending timelines and increasing savings targets.
• Entry-level inventory remains competitive when priced correctly.
Implications for Northeast Florida:
• First-time buyers may require creative financing or seller concessions.
• Sellers must price realistically based on current conditions.
Three Market Forces to Watch in 2026
Consumer Confidence:
Confidence influences whether buyers act or wait.
Mortgage Rate Trends:
Small changes in rates significantly impact buying power. Buyers are focused on monthly payment over purchase price.
Federal Policy Shifts:
Policy decisions affecting lending, taxation, and economic growth influence housing demand.
A Strategy for Beating Higher Mortgage Rates
Assumable FHA and VA loans may allow qualified buyers to assume a seller’s existing mortgage, potentially at a lower rate than current offerings.
Benefits:
• Lower interest rate than prevailing market
• Reduced monthly payment
• Competitive advantage in higher-rate environments
Challenges:
• Buyer must qualify with lender
• Approval process may be slower
• Buyer may need to cover equity difference
Condition and Presentation Still Matter
Kitchen flooring and overall condition continue to influence buyer decisions. Updated, clean, and well-maintained homes outperform dated properties when priced accurately.
Practical Action Steps for 2026
For Buyers:
• Evaluate assumable loan opportunities
• Focus on total monthly housing cost
• Make long-term aligned decisions
For Sellers:
• Price based on current competition
• Highlight favorable loan features if applicable
• Invest in high-impact improvements
Northeast Florida Perspective
Population growth and lifestyle-driven relocation continue to support demand. The market is shifting toward balance, not collapse.
Final Thoughts
2026 is defined by strategy, discipline, and informed decision-making. Real estate remains a powerful long-term wealth and lifestyle tool when approached thoughtfully and with current data.
Relationships Still Matter—Especially in Real Estate
Below are my immediate takeaways from the 2026 REBar Camp, which I attended in St. Augustine, FL with my wife, Sabrina in late January. I went in looking for technical insights—social media, marketing tactics, and industry tools. What I walked away with instead was something far more foundational.
Everything came back to relationships.
Relationship Building vs. Relationship Keeping
One of the strongest themes at REBar Camp was the distinction between building relationships and keeping them. In real estate, there’s a tendency to focus heavily on lead generation and new connections. That matters—but it’s only a small part of the equation.
Relationship keeping is vital.
My personal takeaway is this: a Realtor’s compensation isn’t only for what happens up to the closing table. It also reflects an ongoing commitment to future service. When a transaction closes, the relationship shouldn’t. Clients still deserve guidance, availability, and follow-through long after the paperwork is signed.
That mindset changes how you show up for people.
Sellers vs. Testers: Setting Expectations Early
Another valuable discussion centered on understanding client motivation—specifically the difference between sellers and testers.
Sellers are individuals or families who truly need to sell. That need may be driven by relocation, life changes, hardship, or new opportunities.
Testers are property owners who are curious about the market and want to see what they might be able to get if conditions are right.
Either category is worthy of a Realtors efforts. Issues arise when expectations aren’t addressed upfront.
Clear, honest conversations at the beginning of a relationship help prevent misunderstandings later. When both the client and the Realtor understand the “why,” it becomes much easier to evaluate progress, outcomes, and next steps—without frustration at the finish line.
Not Every Relationship Is the Right Fit—and That’s Okay
One of the more freeing insights reinforced at REBar Camp was this: not everyone will be your client, and not every relationship is meant to move forward.
As a Realtor, some people won’t connect with your communication style. Others won’t resonate with your approach or values. When that happens—and it will—that clarity actually saves time and energy.
That doesn’t mean you stop trying to help. In many cases, the best course of action is a professional referral to someone better suited to their needs. The goal isn’t to work with everyone. The goal is to work well with the right people.
Focusing your time and effort on relationships that align allows you to serve at a higher level.
Final Thoughts
Real estate is still a relationship business.
If you have thoughts, questions, or even a different perspective on any of this, I welcome the conversation. You can find my contact information throughout this site and on my social channels. Whether it’s a quick question or a deeper discussion, I’m always open to seeing how I can help.
Thanks,
Jim Armstrong
Momentum Realty
(904) 671-4161
Jimarmstrong904@gmail.com
The 3 Fits: How to Know You’re Choosing the Right Home in Northeast Florida
When you’re buying a home—especially in a fast-moving market like St. Augustine and St. Johns County—the biggest challenge isn’t finding a house. It’s knowing whether it’s the right one.
In the video above, I break down a simple decision-making framework I call “The 3 Fits.” It cuts through stress, hesitation, and second-guessing so you can make a confident choice when the right home appears.
Whether you’re relocating, retiring, or moving across town, these three filters will keep you focused and prepared.
1. Does the Home FIT Your Lifestyle?
This is the first test—and the most important.
Ask yourself:
Does this home match how you live day to day?
Does it support what you do in your free time?
Does it put you close to what matters—water access, schools, work, health care, or recreation?
In Northeast Florida, lifestyle fit often centers around:
Proximity to beaches, boat ramps, and the Intracoastal
Walkability and community amenities
Lot size, privacy, and outdoor living spaces
Commute time and convenience
If the home doesn’t support your lifestyle, it fails immediately.
2. Does the Home FIT Your Stage of Life?
A home should make the next chapter easier, not harder.
This is where you consider:
Are you retiring or downsizing?
Do you need space for family visits?
Do you want low-maintenance living or room to grow?
Does the floor plan match your long-term needs?
For many of my clients—especially military families, first responders, and retirees—this question brings clarity fast. A home that feels perfect today but doesn’t support tomorrow creates friction. The right home will feel aligned with where you’re going.
3. Does the Home FIT Your Budget Without Stress?
This fit is non-negotiable.
You want a home that:
Is financially comfortable
Leaves room for savings and lifestyle
Doesn’t require stretching limits or taking unnecessary risks
In our area, this means reviewing:
Property taxes
CDD and HOA fees
Insurance costs
Utility expectations
Commuting and transportation expenses
A great house is only truly great if it keeps your life stable and stress-free.
Why These “3 Fits” Work
Homebuyers tend to get overwhelmed because there’s too much information and too many emotions involved. The 3 Fits method simplifies things by forcing clarity:
If a home fits your lifestyle, life stage, and budget, it deserves serious consideration.
If it fails any one of these, move on confidently.
This framework has helped countless buyers avoid regrets, wasted time, and emotional burnout—especially those relocating from out of state with tight schedules.
If You’re Thinking About Buying in Northeast Florida
Finding the right home here doesn’t have to be complicated. With a clear plan and the right guidance, you can make this move with confidence.
If you’d like help applying the 3 Fits to your search—or want a personalized list of homes that match all three—contact me anytime.
Jim Armstrong
(904) 671-4161
Momentum Realty
ReelFloridaLiving.net
Supporting Those Who Served: How Military Relocation Professionals Help Veterans and Active-Duty Families Find Their “Reel” Florida Home
By Jim Armstrong, Momentum Realty | Military Relocation Professional
Transitioning from military service to civilian life comes with both opportunity and challenge. For many veterans and active-duty families, that transition includes finding the right home — one that fits their lifestyle, needs, and future goals. That’s why I recently earned my Military Relocation Professional (MRP) certification — to better serve those who have served our country.
Why Northeast Florida Tops the List for Military Retirees
There are 1.58 million retired military personnel in the United States, and many choose to call Jacksonville and Northeast Florida home. The reasons are clear:
World-Class Health Care: Access to top VA and private medical facilities across the region.
Employment Opportunities: Strong post-military job markets supported by several nearby bases and Department of Defense contractors.
Higher Education Access: Quality universities and colleges for those looking to pursue further education after service.
From St. Augustine to Clay County to Jacksonville, the area offers the perfect blend of opportunity, community, and quality of life.
Financial Benefits: What You Should Know
One benefit that can make relocation smoother is the Dislocation Allowance (DLA).
This allowance helps cover miscellaneous expenses during a Permanent Change of Station (PCS) move that other allowances don’t address.
Here’s what to know:
DLA is paid once per PCS move.
It’s based on rank and dependent status.
Most importantly this benefit can be requested in advance, helping offset house-hunting, moving, or even closing costs on your new home.
For many families, this early payment makes the transition faster and less stressful.
Grants for Wounded Warriors and Disabled Veterans
For those who have sustained injuries during service, there are powerful financial resources available:
Special Home Adaptation Grant (SHA): Up to $120,000 for modifying a home to meet accessibility needs.
Specially Adapted Housing Grant (SAH): Up to $24,000 for home adaptation.
Temporary Residence Adaptation Grants: Between $8,700 and $49,000, while waiting for permanent modifications to be completed.
These programs ensure every veteran has a safe, comfortable, and accessible place to call home.
My Mission: Helping Military Families Move with Confidence
After 28 years of federal service, I understand the structure, urgency, and complexity that come with a PCS move. That’s why I’m creating a PCS House Hunting Readiness Kit — a practical guide to help military families prepare for their next move. It covers what to bring, how to organize documents, and strategies to make your home purchase as smooth as possible.
Download it at RFL Guides
Final Thoughts
Becoming a Military Relocation Professional is more than a certification — it’s a commitment to helping veterans and military families find stability, comfort, and opportunity in their next chapter.
To every service member, veteran, and family — thank you for your service.
If you’re planning a move to Northeast Florida or starting your PCS transition, I’d be honored to guide you through it.
Jim Armstrong
Momentum Realty
📞 (904) 671-4161
🌐 ReelFloridaLiving.net
Beyond the Hype: 5 Data-Driven Reasons Northeast Florida is the Smartest Place to Buy a Home
Introduction: The Market is Stabilizing—Here’s Your Opportunity
After years of volatility, confusion, and uncertainty in the housing market, the data is finally showing clear signs of stabilization. This shift away from the frenzy of the recent past creates a unique window of opportunity for savvy buyers who know where to look. While some once-booming markets are now cooling, other regions that offer sustainable, long-term value are emerging as the smartest choices. For those planning their next chapter, particularly a retirement home, the data points directly to Northeast Florida, a region demonstrating the key indicators of sustainable growth—from strong migration to increasing inventory—without the speculative frenzy seen elsewhere.
1. The “New Normal” for Mortgage Rates Is Your Best Friend
After a period of sharp increases and unpredictability, mortgage rates have settled into a stable range, creating a more predictable environment for homebuyers. According to recent data, rates have been hovering around 6.31% for weeks, providing a “sweet spot” for buyers to re-enter the market. Looking ahead, the National Association of REALTORS® forecasts that rates will stabilize near 6% in 2025, establishing a “new normal.”
This stability is further supported by broader economic trends. A weakening job market recently prompted the Federal Reserve to implement its first rate cut after holding rates steady for three quarters, a move that is expected to help keep mortgage rates lower. While the Fed’s rate doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, it influences the broader cost of borrowing for banks, which typically leads to more favorable lending rates for consumers. This newfound stability is crucial; it removes the fear of missing out on a lower rate and allows prospective buyers to plan their finances with confidence, making it an ideal time to begin a home search.
2. Your Buying Power Just Got a Major Upgrade
Even a modest decrease in mortgage rates can have a significant impact on what you can afford. This increased purchasing power is a game-changer for many buyers, especially those in middle and upper-middle-income brackets, which often includes retirees.
Data from a recent Realtor.com® and National Association of REALTORS® collaboration illustrates this point perfectly. A buyer earning $100,000 annually can afford a 6.3% more expensive home if mortgage rates drop from 6.8% to 6.0%. This isn’t just a number on a spreadsheet; it’s the difference between a home with a small patio and one with a screened-in lanai for enjoying the Florida evenings, or the ability to choose a community with the water access or amenities you’ve worked your whole life to enjoy. For those looking for the perfect retirement home, this boost in buying power can make the difference between a good home and your dream home.
3. The South Florida Frenzy is Fading (And That’s Good News for You)
While headlines often treat the Florida real estate market as a single entity, the data tells a more nuanced story. Not all of Florida is booming, and that’s actually good news for discerning buyers. New data on home-purchase loan applications shows significant decreases in several major South Florida markets, including an 8.4% drop in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach area and an 11.6% decrease in the Naples-Marco Island area. In fact, five of the top ten metro areas with the largest application losses nationwide were in Florida.
This isn’t a sign of a failing market but rather a healthy and necessary correction. The speculative, overheated frenzy in South Florida is cooling off. This shift creates a powerful opportunity for buyers to find better long-term value in less crowded, more stable markets. Northeast Florida stands out as the ideal alternative, offering the coveted Florida lifestyle without the inflated prices and intense competition of its southern counterparts. This market rebalancing is pushing savvy buyers to look for regions that exhibit the foundational metrics of sustainable growth—metrics that perfectly describe Northeast Florida.
4. Northeast Florida Ticks All the “Housing Hotspot” Boxes
The National Association of REALTORS® has identified key economic and demographic factors that indicate which housing markets are poised to outperform in 2025. Northeast Florida aligns perfectly with these data-driven indicators, making it an attractive destination for homebuyers and retirees seeking both lifestyle and a sound investment. Key factors include:
Strong Net Migration: Areas with a strong influx of new residents demonstrate a desirable quality of life and benefit from increased housing demand. This trend is particularly evident in Northeast Florida’s Duval and St. Johns counties, which have consistently ranked among the state’s leaders for inbound moves, signaling a strong and sustained desire for the region’s quality of life.
More Homeowners Surpassing Average Tenure: Homeowners who have lived in their homes longer than the typical 16-year average are more likely to sell. This is a positive sign for inventory and is particularly relevant for retirees, who often fall into this category and can bring significant equity from a previous home sale and retirement benefits to fund their dream home purchase in a more affordable market like Northeast Florida.
Faster Job Growth: A robust job market is a sign of a stable and growing local economy. Northeast Florida’s burgeoning healthcare, finance, and logistics sectors are driving job growth that outpaces many other parts of the state, ensuring a resilient local economy that protects property values for all residents and better supports retirees.
While national trends provide a useful framework, it is this specific combination of local strengths that positions Northeast Florida as a particularly intelligent place to invest in a home.
5. More Choices Are Finally Hitting the Market
One of the biggest frustrations for buyers in recent years has been the severe lack of inventory. Fortunately, this trend is beginning to reverse. Housing inventory levels are gradually improving and are expected to increase further in 2025.
This welcomed easing of the “Lock-in Effect” is driven by two main factors: an increase in new construction projects and, just as importantly, more existing homeowners who are encouraged to sell by the stabilizing market conditions. For buyers—especially retirees who may be looking for a specific type of home with particular features for their next chapter—this is critical news. This means having the luxury of choice—to find a single-story layout that avoids stairs, a home with a guest suite for when the grandkids visit, or a property with less yard to maintain, allowing you more time to actually enjoy your retirement.
Conclusion: Your Window Is Open
The data paints a clear picture: the housing market is entering a new phase of stability and opportunity. Mortgage rates have found a sustainable new normal, buyers’ purchasing power has increased, and the market is shifting away from areas of speculative hype toward regions that offer genuine, long-term value. The overheated frenzy is giving way to a more rational market where smart decisions can be rewarded.
With the market finally offering more stability and choice, isn’t it time to look past the old hotspots and discover where your retirement dream can truly become a reality?
Written by Jim Armstrong on October 18, 2025.