Condos Crack First, and Florida Is Where It’s Splitting Open

There’s a number out this week that most homeowners will never hear about, but if you own a condo in Florida it’s worth two minutes of your time. Home prices overall are still ticking up. Condo prices are going the other way. That gap is the early warning, and Florida is sitting right on the fault line.

What the New Numbers Actually Say

The July ICE Mortgage Monitor came out this week. It tracks home prices across the country, and it split the results by property type. Single-family homes are up about 2% from a year ago. Condos are down about 0.7%. Half of the country’s major markets now have condo prices below where they were last year, and in 97 of the top 100 markets, condos are lagging single-family homes.

ICE calls condos a leading indicator. That means when the market starts to soften, condos usually show it first. And ICE didn’t leave the reason vague. They named HOA fees and property insurance in weather-risk states “like Florida” as a big part of why condo prices are sliding.

Why This Hits Florida Harder Than Anywhere Else

If you own a condo here, you already know the pressure. Since the Surfside collapse, the state requires older buildings to fund their reserves and pass a milestone inspection, with a deadline of December 31, 2026. A lot of buildings that put those repairs off for years are now hitting owners with special assessments to catch up. Add insurance that’s still the highest in the country, and monthly costs that keep climbing.

Now stack a falling price on top of that. Here’s the problem it creates. Say you owe close to what your condo is worth. A pending assessment lands, buyers get nervous about the building, and the price your unit can actually sell for drops. All of a sudden the number a buyer will pay is less than what you still owe the bank. You can’t sell and walk away clean, because the sale doesn’t cover the loan.

That’s the spot where a short sale comes in. A short sale is when the lender agrees to let you sell for less than you owe and releases you from the mortgage. It’s not the only option, and it’s not right for everyone. But for an underwater condo owner staring down an assessment that could drain their savings, it’s one path worth understanding before the money’s gone.

What to Do With This

You don’t need to panic over a 0.7% number. But if you own a condo in Florida, especially in an older building with a milestone inspection coming or an assessment already on the table, it’s smart to know where you actually stand. Find out what your unit would realistically sell for today, and compare it honestly to what you owe. If those two numbers are close, or the wrong one is bigger, that’s the moment to look at your options, not six months from now when the assessment bill is due.

The owners who get ahead of this have more room to move than the ones who wait. The earlier you know the numbers, the more choices you have.

If you own a Florida condo and you’re not sure where you stand, or you want to understand whether a short sale even applies to your situation, you can reach me directly at JimArmstrong904@gmail.com or (904) 671-4161. No pressure and no pitch. Just straight answers.