How Do I Find Out if I Owe More on My House Than It’s Worth?

Two phone calls tell you. Request a written payoff statement from your servicer, good through a specific date. Then get a real opinion of value on the house as it sits today. Subtract the cost of sale from the value, set it against the payoff. That’s the answer, and it beats guessing every time.

Why Isn’t My Servicer’s App Balance the Real Number?

Because the balance in the app isn’t the payoff. The payoff carries interest to the date of funding, plus any advanced escrow, corporate advances and fees your servicer has added along the way. Ask for the payoff statement by name. It’s the only number that’s actually binding.

I laid out that same two-number test on September 20: a payoff figure from your servicer and a real opinion of value, set against each other, rather than a website estimate. What’s new this morning is a national data point that puts a size on how many Florida sellers are actually sitting in that spot right now.

How Many Florida Homes for Sale Right Now Are Actually Underwater?

7.0 percent, according to Parcl Labs’ live tracker, updated this morning. That’s Florida’s share of active listings where the estimated home value sits below the estimated loan balance. Nationally it’s 3.6 percent, so Florida’s rate runs roughly double.

Is That the Same as a Seller Asking Less Than They Paid?

No, and mixing the two up is exactly what’s happening on social media right now. Parcl tracks a second, separate number called Unrealized Loss: the share of listings asking below what the owner originally paid for the house. Nationally that’s 7.0 percent, 114,388 of 1,629,173 active listings. In Florida it’s 11.1 percent.

Asking less than you paid is about the purchase price. Owing more than the house is worth is about the loan balance. Someone who put twenty percent down in 2022 and is asking five percent under what they paid is taking a paper loss and isn’t underwater on the mortgage at all. Someone who put three and a half percent down on an FHA loan can be asking more than they paid and still not clear the payoff once the cost of sale comes off the top.

How Solid Is This Data?

Read it with the same caution as any modeled estimate. Parcl states plainly that its Underwater Listings figure runs on the Parcl Estimate, which is in beta, and that the loan balance side assumes the FRED thirty year rate at the time of origination rather than a borrower’s actual note rate. It also counts listings, not households, so it says nothing about the much larger group of Florida owners who aren’t trying to sell right now.

None of that makes 7.0 percent meaningless. Same publisher, same metric, same day, for both the national and Florida figures, which makes the comparison a fair one even with the caveats attached. One in fourteen Florida homes on the market today probably can’t pay off the loan out of the sale.

Also of note today, a different housing story broke around what sellers are giving up at the closing table.

Do I Have to Pay the Buyer’s Closing Costs to Sell My House?

Increasingly, yes, somewhere. Redfin’s August numbers, published September 18, show sellers gave a concession in 44.7 percent of U.S. home sales, the highest August share since Redfin’s records began in 2020.

What Is a Seller Concession, Exactly?

Money that comes off your side of the settlement statement after the price is already agreed. It’s not a discount on the list price. It’s cash handed back at closing, usually toward the buyer’s closing costs or a rate buydown.

How Common Are Concessions in Florida Right Now?

Tampa: 47.8 percent of sales carried a concession, down 1.6 points from a year ago.

Miami: 43.8 percent, up 4.0 points.

Orlando: 43.5 percent, up 8.2 points.

Jacksonville isn’t in Redfin’s table. They publish 29 metros with enough agent-reported data behind them, and Northeast Florida isn’t one of the 29, so there’s no local number here, only the regional direction.

Why Does a Concession Matter More the Less Equity You Have?

Because it comes out of the same pool of proceeds as the commission and the ordinary closing costs. For a seller with real equity, it’s a rounding error. For a seller with four percent equity, it can be the difference between closing and not closing. And it stacks: almost one in six U.S. sales in August carried both a price cut and a concession on top of it.

Does a Short Sale Work the Same Way?

No, and the difference is worth knowing before anyone signs anything. In a short sale, you have no proceeds to give, so a concession comes out of the lender’s money, not yours, which means the lender decides. Servicers often cap what they’ll allow toward a buyer’s costs, and some won’t permit one at all. If a short sale offer includes a concession, what the servicer will actually approve is worth confirming before the offer goes in.

Jacksonville, Florida is where I do this work, and distressed property is most of what crosses my desk. If either of these hits close to home, I’m glad to walk through where you actually stand.

JimArmstrong904@gmail.com, or (904) 671-4161 if a call is easier.

Jim Armstrong, REALTOR® Momentum Realty SFR® (Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource) certified. This is general information, not legal, tax, or financial advice.

Momentum Realty is not associated with the government, and our service is not approved by the government or your lender.