Is Anyone Still Moving to Jacksonville?

Yes, and by one bank’s count it sped up. A chart getting passed around this week to argue the opposite, that Florida’s migration reversal is “getting ugly,” is measuring outflow from other Florida metros. Jacksonville isn’t even on that chart. It’s on a different one, next to Dallas and Nashville, on the list of fastest-growing metros in the country.

What’s the Post Actually Claiming?

A post that racked up over 660,000 views over the weekend said Florida’s biggest metros are hemorrhaging people, named Tampa, Orlando and Miami as all having lost population in the second quarter, and claimed Orlando and Miami lost more people than New York. It got quote-posted and amplified from there.

The chart behind it is Exhibit 4 from a Bank of America Institute report called “On the move: Renovation over relocation?”, published August 28. The exhibit’s own printed title reads: “There’s been a deceleration in the population outflows across most major Florida MSAs.”

Deceleration is the opposite of what the post said it showed.

What Does Bank of America’s Own Report Say?

Their paragraph underneath that exhibit, word for word: “Miami wasn’t the only Florida city where outflows moderated. Across the state’s other major metros, Orlando recorded a slight deceleration in outflows, while Tampa’s ground to a halt. Meanwhile, population growth accelerated in Jacksonville.”

Tampa is on that exhibit, and it sits at the bottom of the list of 25 metros, right next to zero. Jacksonville isn’t on Exhibit 4 at all. It’s on Exhibit 3, the list of the fastest-growing metros in the country.

There’s also a claim in the post that the chart can’t back up. Exhibit 4 plots year-over-year percent change. It carries no headcount, and Bank of America publishes none in this report. Saying one city lost more people than another isn’t something a percent-change chart can tell you either way.

Is This a Census Count?

No. It’s Bank of America’s own customers, read off home addresses, for anyone who held an account with them every quarter from the first quarter of 2023 through the second quarter of 2026. Bank of America’s own methodology section says the data “will not capture the impact of international migration,” that it “is not comprehensive,” that it may “reflect a degree of selection bias,” and that Census Bureau figures “will not necessarily align with our data in some MSAs.”

None of that makes the chart wrong. It makes it one bank’s read of where its own customers moved, not a population count of anybody.

What This Means If You’re Behind and Thinking About Selling

Somebody two payments behind who reads “Florida migration bust” this week might decide there’s nobody left to sell to. The report that post is standing on says the opposite about growth in this city specifically.

That’s not the same thing as a buyer for your house. A short sale still needs somebody willing to sit through a lender’s review, sometimes for months, and no migration chart measures patience. What a chart like this can tell you is whether the pool of people moving into an area is shrinking. In Jacksonville, on this data, it isn’t.

In other news, a second thing worth answering plainly today: what happens to a home equity line when the house has to sell for less than what’s owed.

Can I Sell My House if I Have a Home Equity Loan Too?

Yes, but it takes two lenders saying yes instead of one, and the second one doesn’t have to agree just because the first one did.

Does a Home Equity Line Have to Be Paid Off Before I Can Sell?

Yes. A home equity line is a lien, and it sits behind the first mortgage on the same property. Nothing conveys clear title until every lien on the house is released, first and second both. On a sale with enough equity, the closing statement pays both off and nobody thinks twice about it.

What Changes When There Isn’t Enough Money to Pay Both Off?

I wrote about how a second lien complicates a short sale back on August 12. The new piece this week is the arithmetic underneath it.

The first mortgage servicer usually sets a cap on how much of the sale proceeds it will let the seller pay out to a junior lienholder. The junior lender knows what that cap is going in. It’s being asked to release its claim on the house for a fraction of what it’s owed, sometimes for close to nothing, and it doesn’t have to agree. That negotiation runs on its own timeline, separate from the first lender’s approval, and it’s usually the part nobody warned the seller about going in.

What’s the Difference Between the Lien Being Released and the Debt Being Forgiven?

They’re two different things, and a lender can do one without the other. A junior lender can take a reduced payoff, release its lien so the sale closes, and still hold you to the note for the rest. Which one actually happened is written into the approval letter, in language that doesn’t look like it matters until it does.

What Should You Ask For Before Anything Else Gets Decided?

The current payoff on the second loan, not the balance printed on last month’s statement. A number that’s out of date by even a few weeks can be the difference between a deal that pencils and one that doesn’t.

Jacksonville, Florida is home base, and distressed property is most of what lands on my desk. Happy to talk through where either of these sits for you.

JimArmstrong904@gmail.com, or (904) 671-4161 if talking beats typing.

Jim Armstrong, REALTOR, Momentum Realty, SFR (Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource) certified. This is general information, not legal, tax, or financial advice.

Momentum Realty is not associated with the government, and our service is not approved by the government or your lender.