Is My House Worth Less Than I Paid for It?

Maybe, and it depends more on when and where you bought than on anything in this week’s national headlines. Home values nationally are up 1.3 percent over the past year. In Florida, that number splits hard by metro, and sixteen of the fifty four housing markets in the country where values fell are here.

How Many Housing Markets Actually Fell in Value This Year?

Fifty four, out of the three hundred largest metro markets in the country. ResiClub published the count on September 18, using Zillow’s own home value index through the end of August. That’s the fewest declining markets in three years. A year earlier the same measure showed 109 of 300 markets falling, better than one in three. This year it’s about one in five.

So the national trend is toward improvement, not away from it. Florida didn’t move with it.

How Many of Those Are in Florida?

Sixteen. Close to a third of the national list, out of one state.

Cape Coral-Fort Myers: down 3.09 percent

Punta Gorda: down 2.84 percent

Lakeland-Winter Haven: down 2.15 percent

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford: down 1.35 percent

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater: down 0.64 percent

Jacksonville: down 0.03 percent

Cape Coral and Punta Gorda sit at the top of Florida’s list. For scale, the single worst reading in the country is London, Kentucky, down 5.21 percent, with Austin, Texas close behind at down 4.16 percent.

Is Jacksonville’s Home Value Actually Falling?

No. Down 0.03 percent over twelve months is flat, not falling. Jacksonville is the last name on the list of 54, which is another way of saying it barely qualifies.

Nobody in Duval County woke up to a crash this year. But flat is a different animal than the six percent a year that would have paid off a 2022 purchase in three years, and it’s a different animal from a market where a builder or a neighbor’s price cut is actively working against you.

Does a Falling Home Value Index Mean I Owe More Than My House Is Worth?

Not by itself. The Zillow Home Value Index is a modeled estimate, not a record of what actually sold. I walked through that same estimate-versus-sale-price gap back on July 30, and it still holds here: an index can move without a single house in your neighborhood changing hands, and it says nothing about your specific address.

What decides whether you owe more than your house is worth is your loan balance and the cost of selling, set against what a buyer would actually pay today. Somebody who bought in Cape Coral in 2022 with a small down payment and somebody who bought in Jacksonville the same year are on the same slide at different points on it. The index is the part you can see on a website. The payoff figure is the part that decides whether you can sell, and it isn’t in this report or any other headline.

Is the Overall Housing Market Getting Better or Worse?

Both, depending on where you’re standing. Nationally, it’s improving. A year ago the national reading was down 0.01 percent. Now it’s up 1.3 percent, and the count of falling markets dropped from 109 to 54.

Florida stayed heavy on the list anyway. Among just the fifty largest markets in the country, 21 of them, 42 percent, are still negative. ResiClub names Texas, Florida and Colorado together as the states carrying active inventory well above pre-pandemic 2019 levels, and describes what’s happening in them as material corrections in some spots and flat pricing in others.

None of that is about mortgage rates, which moved on their own path this month. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30 year fixed at 6.95 percent on September 17, a fourth straight weekly increase.

What Do I Actually Do If I Think I’m Underwater?

Get the real numbers before you act on a headline. That means a current payoff figure from your servicer, in writing, and an honest look at what comparable homes near you have actually sold for, not listed for. Those two numbers, not a metro index, tell you where you stand.

If the payoff comes in higher than what the house would sell for after commission and closing costs, a short sale is one of the paths available, and it runs on the lender’s approval rather than yours alone. It’s one option among several, and which one fits depends on the loan, the lender and your own file.

Jacksonville, Florida is where I work, and distressed property is most of what crosses my desk. Happy to talk through where your situation actually sits in any of this.

JimArmstrong904@gmail.com, or (904) 671-4161 if talking beats typing.

Jim Armstrong, REALTOR, Momentum Realty, SFR (Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource) certified. This is general information, not legal, tax, or financial advice.

Momentum Realty is not associated with the government, and our service is not approved by the government or your lender.