Jacksonville Lost a Fifth of Its Homes for Sale. Asking Prices Fell Anyway.

Fewer houses on the market usually gets read one way. Supply is tight, so sellers hold their price.

That’s not what happened here.

Realtor.com released its July housing report on Monday. Out of the 50 largest metros in the country, the sharpest one-year drop in homes for sale was Jacksonville, Florida, down 20.0 percent. Biggest fall on the whole list. Nationally the number of homes for sale went the other way, up 2.1 percent.

And the asking price in Jacksonville came down 4.5 percent anyway. Price per square foot down 3.0 percent on top of that.

A fifth of the inventory gone, and the price down. Both of those moved the same direction, and that isn’t how the tight-market story goes.

What the Four Big Florida Metros Look Like

Homes for sale compared to a year ago, then the median asking price and how it moved.

Jacksonville: down 20.0 percent. $389,973, down 4.5 percent.

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach: down 16.9 percent. $495,000, down 2.9 percent.

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater: down 7.9 percent. $397,450, down 4.2 percent.

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford: down 4.1 percent. $419,450, down 1.8 percent.

Nationally: up 2.1 percent. $428,950, down 2.4 percent.

Miami had the second-sharpest drop in the country. San Francisco was third. So two of the three biggest inventory declines in the United States are in Florida, and asking prices fell in both.

One thing about those numbers before anybody runs with them. Those are median list prices. That’s what sellers are asking on homes sitting on the market right now, and it’s not what anything sold for. Sale prices are a different measure on a different set of houses over a different stretch of time. If you see a Florida median sale price quoted somewhere this month, don’t put it next to these. They don’t compare, and people compare them constantly.

Nobody Can Tell You Why the Count Fell

Here’s the part that matters more than the headline.

Realtor.com doesn’t break out where those listings went. Sold, expired, pulled off the market, or never listed at all, the report doesn’t separate them. So nobody can look at that 20 percent and say which one it was.

There are pieces of it in the same report. New listings in Jacksonville were down 4.1 percent, so less was coming in. Homes went under contract nine days faster than last July, so more was going out. Some of the drop is faster absorption and some of it is less new supply.

Past that it’s a guess, and it should stay one. I’d rather tell you the number is real and the reason isn’t known than hand you a story that sounds tidy.

Where This Actually Lands If You’re Behind

If you’re current on your mortgage and not going anywhere, this is a headline and nothing more.

If you’re trying to get out from under a house and you owe more than it’s worth, it touches something real.

A short sale doesn’t turn on what you think the house is worth. It turns on a number somebody else picks. Your lender orders a valuation, usually an appraisal or a broker price opinion, and whoever does it builds that number off recent closed sales and off what your house is competing with on the market right now.

When the active pool in a market shrinks by a fifth in a year, there’s less to compare against. Thinner comparisons are where valuations get argued. And the person on the wrong side of that argument is the seller who needs the number to work.

I’m not the one who decides that number, and neither is your agent. The appraiser or the broker doing the valuation decides it, and your lender decides what to do with it. That’s worth knowing going in.

The Price-Cut Number Is Doing Something Strange

One more line in the Jacksonville row is worth sitting with.

A quarter of the listings there are carrying a price cut, 25.5 percent. And that share is going the other way from the price. It’s down 3.6 points from last July, not up.

So sellers are cutting less often while asking prices fall. Could be that people are pricing closer to the market on day one. Could be a different mix of houses coming up for sale. Could be that the sellers who’d have cut already left. The data doesn’t say which, and I’m not going to pretend it does.

Jake Krimmel, a senior economist at Realtor.com, pointed at August as the month that tells you something. His words were that if cuts accelerate while pending sales weaken and sellers pull listings, that’s the more concerning combination.

Three things at once, not one. That’s the thing to watch, and it hasn’t happened yet.

If the House Is the Problem

The choices haven’t changed, and a market number doesn’t change them either.

A regular sale, if there’s enough equity left in it. A short sale, which needs your lender’s approval, and nobody can promise you that approval. A deed in lieu. Loss mitigation with your servicer, which might mean a modification or a repayment plan. Or letting it run to foreclosure.

Each one lands differently on your credit, on your taxes, and on what you might still owe when it’s over. Florida is a recourse state, so that last piece is real here in a way it isn’t everywhere. The tax exclusion on forgiven mortgage debt expired on January 1 of this year, which changed the tax side for a lot of people.

Which of those is right for you comes down to legal, tax and credit questions. I’m not your attorney and I’m not your CPA, and the answers to those belong with people who are.

Falling behind is usually life landing hard on somebody who was fine a year ago. It isn’t a character problem, and a market that lost a fifth of its listings isn’t going to fix it or cause it either way.

I’m based in Jacksonville and licensed in Florida. Questions come in from other states, and those go back out through the SFR® referral network, because I don’t represent anybody outside Florida.

If you’ve got a question, email JimArmstrong904@gmail.com or call or text (904) 671-4161. No obligation, and nothing waiting on the other end of it.

Jim Armstrong, REALTOR® · Momentum Realty · SFR® (Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource) certified. This is general information, not legal, tax, or financial advice.

Momentum Realty is not associated with the government, and our service is not approved by the government or your lender.