Sale Prices Are Near a Record. Asking Prices Just Hit a One-Year Low.

Redfin published its weekly housing numbers on Thursday, covering the four weeks ending July 26. Two figures in it sit about $15,000 apart.

The median sale price across the country was $407,752, up 2.8% from a year ago and roughly $2,000 short of the all-time high. The median asking price was $392,760, flat against last year and the lowest it has been in twelve months.

Same country, same four weeks, opposite directions. Both numbers are real. They’re measuring different things.

One of These Is Describing the Spring

A sale price is a closing. A closing that recorded in July was usually agreed in May or June, then it sat through inspections, an appraisal and underwriting for 30 to 60 days before it went on the books. So that $407,752 is a picture of what buyers and sellers agreed to two months ago.

An asking price is what a seller put up this week. Nobody has agreed to anything yet.

That’s the gap. One number is history and one is right now, and the one that’s right now is the one that came down.

If You Owe More Than the House Is Worth, This Is Your Number

Stay with me, because this is where it stops being trivia.

When you go looking up what houses “sold for” near you, you get the closed-sale number. It’s the flattering one and it’s the late one. What a buyer sitting in front of your listing is comparing against is closer to what everybody else is asking today.

On a short sale it shows up in one specific place. The lender orders its own valuation, usually a broker price opinion or an appraisal, and that valuation is built on closed sales. Closed sales describe the spring. The offer on the table came out of this week’s market. Those two can land apart, and when they do, that becomes the conversation with the lender. It’s a normal part of a short sale file, not a sign that anything went wrong. And nobody can tell you in advance where a lender comes out on it.

Same math on the agent side. If you’re pricing a distressed listing in Jacksonville off 60-day-old closings, you’ll sit above where live sellers are asking, and the lender’s valuation will argue with your contract. Might wanna pull the active asks alongside the comps before you set the number.

The Rest of the Week

Pending sales came in at 322,739, down 1.7% in a single week and the lowest in over three months. New listings were at their second-lowest level since the first week of January. Touring activity is up 15% since January, against 31% at this point last year. Buyers are moving. Fewer of them.

The daily average 30-year fixed rate touched 6.85% at the end of the prior week, the highest in over a year. That’s Mortgage News Daily’s number, and it’s a different series from the Freddie Mac weekly average you usually see quoted.

The median monthly housing payment fell to $2,575, its lowest in three months. Worth being clear about why. It didn’t fall because rates helped. It fell because asking prices came down.

What Florida Looks Like in the Same Table

Redfin’s list covers 50 metros. Orlando is one of seven in the country where the median sale price is below a year ago, off 0.3%. West Palm Beach is the biggest gainer anywhere, up 12.2%, with pending sales up 15.4%. Miami’s new listings are down 11.3% from last year.

Jacksonville isn’t in either the gainers or the decliners, so I’m not going to claim anything about it here.

What is true statewide: Florida still leads the country in foreclosure rate, with 27,494 filings in the first half of this year, about one in every 373 homes. That’s from ATTOM Data Solutions.

Where That Leaves You

If the payment is getting away from you and the loan is bigger than the house, the choices are the same ones they’ve always been, and they cost different things. A regular sale, if there’s equity left. A short sale, which needs your lender’s approval, and nobody can promise you that approval. A deed in lieu. Loss mitigation with your servicer. Or letting it run to foreclosure. Each one lands differently on your credit, your taxes, and on what you might still owe when it’s over. Florida is a recourse state, so that last piece is real here. And the forgiven-debt tax exclusion expired on January 1 of this year, which changed the tax side for a lot of people.

Those are legal, tax and credit questions. I’m not your attorney and I’m not your CPA.

One thing worth saying plainly. Falling behind isn’t a character problem. Most of the time it’s something that landed on somebody who was fine a year ago.

I’m based in Jacksonville and licensed in Florida. Questions come in from other states, and those go back out through the SFR referral network, because I don’t represent anybody outside Florida.

If you’ve got a question, email JimArmstrong904@gmail.com or call or text (904) 671-4161. No obligation, and no pitch waiting on the other end of it.

Jim Armstrong, REALTOR, Momentum Realty, SFR (Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource) certified. This is general information, not legal, tax, or financial advice.

Momentum Realty is not associated with the government, and our service is not approved by the government or your lender.