Two Numbers Landed Today, and Both of Them Are About Time

Two things came out today that don’t look related. Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey at noon, and a read of the May home price index that a housing analyst published yesterday.

Put them next to each other and they’re the same story. Both are about a plan a lot of Florida homeowners are running right now without saying it out loud: hold on, and let time fix this.

Here’s what today said about that plan.

Mortgage Rates Hit 6.66%, the Highest in a Year

Freddie Mac publishes its Primary Mortgage Market Survey every Thursday at noon Eastern. Today’s print put the 30-year fixed at 6.66%, up from 6.58% last week. Fourth straight week up. The 15-year fixed came in at 6.04%, up from 5.96%.

A year ago the 30-year sat at 6.72%. So this is the highest reading anywhere in the last twelve months, without quite matching where it was last July.

Freddie Mac’s own comment on it pointed at inventory rather than rates. More homes available, more room to work with. That’s a fair read if you’re shopping.

It’s a different read if you’re behind.

Now, the Fed doesn’t set the 30-year, and nobody writing about it knows where it goes next, me included. But yesterday three Fed officials voted for a rate hike, and today the mortgage rate went up again for the fourth week running. If the plan has been to hang on until rates drop and refinance out of the problem, this week handed you two separate pieces of evidence that the door isn’t opening on your schedule.

Arrears don’t pause while you wait. The size of them is usually what decides whether there’s still room to do something other than watch an auction date show up. That’s what the plan costs. Whether it’s still worth paying is yours to weigh.

House Prices Are Near a Record and Down 4.8% at the Same Time

Both of those are true. The gap between them is where a lot of people lose a year.

Bill McBride at CalculatedRisk published his read of the May Case-Shiller index on July 29. In plain dollars, the national index and the 20-city composite are both sitting just under their all-time highs. Adjusted for inflation, the national index is 4.8% below its 2022 peak and the 20-city composite is 4.5% below. Both fell again in May. It’s been 48 months since real prices peaked. His own expectation for the rest of 2026 is roughly flat to slightly down in plain dollars, with real prices still falling.

Worth being precise about what that is. Case-Shiller national index, seasonally adjusted, May 2026 data, deflated by CPI. It’s a national series. It is not a Florida median sale price, and the two can’t be set against each other.

Here’s the part that reaches somebody who owes more than the house will bring.

Your payoff is a plain-dollar number. The bank doesn’t adjust your balance for inflation. So when a homeowner says they’re waiting for prices to come back, what they mean is plain-dollar prices. And plain-dollar prices are already about as high as they have ever been. There isn’t a coming-back left to do.

What has been falling for four years is what the house is worth measured against everything else you buy. That erosion is real, and it’s slow, and none of it touches what’s owed. Waiting doesn’t close that gap. It adds arrears to it.

There’s a tax piece here too, and it changed this year. The exclusion that used to cover forgiven mortgage debt expired on January 1. That’s a CPA question. I’m not one.

If You’re Behind in Florida

The options are what they’ve always been. A short sale. A deed in lieu. A regular sale if there’s equity left. Loss mitigation with your servicer. Or letting it run its course.

Each one lands differently on your credit, your taxes, and what you might still owe when it’s over. Florida is a recourse state, so that last part isn’t academic. Which one fits depends on your loan, your lender, and what your paperwork says. Most of what decides it is a legal, tax or credit question. I’m not your attorney and I’m not your CPA.

What I can do is show you how each one actually works, and what timing does to each one. Then move with whatever you decide.

I’m based in Jacksonville and licensed in Florida. Questions come in from other states, and those go out through the SFR® referral network, because I don’t represent anybody outside Florida.

If you’ve got a question, email JimArmstrong904@gmail.com or call or text (904) 671-4161. No obligation, and no pitch waiting on the other end of it.

Jim Armstrong, REALTOR® · Momentum Realty · SFR® (Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource) certified. This is general information, not legal, tax, or financial advice.

Momentum Realty is not associated with the government, and our service is not approved by the government or your lender.

Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending July 30, 2026; Associated Press via WSLS, July 30, 2026; CalculatedRisk (Bill McBride), “Inflation Adjusted House Prices,” July 29, 2026, on S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national and 20-city indices, May 2026 data.